Friday was a nice big gain for both gold and silver.
They have slid back from the highs but have held on for the better part so far here into Thursday.
Still looks like lots of sideways chop action in a downward trend.
In addition to that the dollar is in an uptrend and interest rates are supposed to be going up at some point in an effort to prove that we can raise interest rates at some point without blowing up the world.
Kind of interesting that is almost like the Fed is daring itself to raise rates at this point.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Tuesday, December 8, 2015
Political Correctness
We live in a hyper PC world right now.
I don't get it.
The politicians and the media poll lower than pond scum.
Why does anyone want to be politically correct when politicians are so hated?
More importantly, why do we care what laws they pass?
I don't get it.
The politicians and the media poll lower than pond scum.
Why does anyone want to be politically correct when politicians are so hated?
More importantly, why do we care what laws they pass?
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Silver back above $14, not that you can buy it at that price
Silver is back above $14 tonight.
Still in a big down trend.
Probing the $13's was not a good sign and I'd expect more of it.
I'm not a seller though, I'm a buyer.
I don't see silver online priced anywhere below $15 tonight.
In junk silver I am seeing roughly 12.5x face value where melt value is is basically 10.2x face value.
Some premium above melt value is expected. I think of melt value like salvage value.
While the premium above spot is important, it is more important to see what the spread is on buying and selling. The tighter the spread and the more liquid the market the better. I don't mind paying a premium for junk silver if I can sell it for a premium when needed, and I can. Generic silver I can't really sell at a premium so all that premium is lost.
Either way. The down trend continues. For those who save in silver and gold or just have a monthly budget for coins, more bang for our buck. For those looking to make short term profits guessing which way the price is going to change, good luck to you.
Still in a big down trend.
Probing the $13's was not a good sign and I'd expect more of it.
I'm not a seller though, I'm a buyer.
I don't see silver online priced anywhere below $15 tonight.
In junk silver I am seeing roughly 12.5x face value where melt value is is basically 10.2x face value.
Some premium above melt value is expected. I think of melt value like salvage value.
While the premium above spot is important, it is more important to see what the spread is on buying and selling. The tighter the spread and the more liquid the market the better. I don't mind paying a premium for junk silver if I can sell it for a premium when needed, and I can. Generic silver I can't really sell at a premium so all that premium is lost.
Either way. The down trend continues. For those who save in silver and gold or just have a monthly budget for coins, more bang for our buck. For those looking to make short term profits guessing which way the price is going to change, good luck to you.
Wednesday, December 2, 2015
Silver Says Hello $13 and Dead Beats Beating Debts
So much for those $14's.
I am looking at $13.94 on silver with gold just a shade above $1050.
This is more about King Dollar than the precious metals.
King Dollar will thrive in the near term as the best safe haven among paper currencies. As long as there is faith in any paper dollar, the US Dollar will be King Dollar. It really was a great system they set up for Americans coming out of Bretton Woods. I don't like being the generation that gets to unwind that as it had to end eventually, but it probably was the best way forward at that time.
Going forward I expect more deflation as demand destruction takes hold in the centrally planned global economy. Throw in the flight to safety that fuels King Dollar and a potential increase in interest rates and things look ugly for gold and silver, from the point of view of an American anyway. In other countries where their currency is depreciating relative to King Dollar, gold and silver will likely be looking pretty good. If you believe that the strength in King Dollar is fleeting, or just want to hedge against tail risk in the event of the death of King Dollar, gold and silver make a lot of sense.
After the deflation is wide spread, then we get to paper over the problems and that should cause inflation or perhaps hyperinflation / death of King Dollar. The Bernanke helicopter money drop if you will. That probably isn't enough to cause hyperinflation in my book. Even Yellen giving every American citizen $50,000 wouldn't cause hyperinflation. For that you will need a loss in the faith of the US Government to pay its obligations going forward. Considering that we print the dollars out of thin air, that means that people won't accept them anymore. This is more of a geopolitical risk. China or Russia doing something crazy. Maybe the death of the petrodollar with Saudi Arabia getting exposed by Russia in this whole mid east mess, who knows.
Do I think we will see the end of the dollar soon? No. It is possible and more possible than at any point since the short time after August 15, 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window temporarily forever.
I really think we will see some type of default on our debts to someone. Maybe we can stuff everyone's MyRA retirement account with items in the Social Security trust fund / lock box. Who knows. To me though, the dollar being devalued against something (gold, oil, productive nation's currencies, SDR's, bitcoin, etc) is what is going to happen. An economic collapse isn't a collapse of society or even the government, just dead beats beating debts.
I am looking at $13.94 on silver with gold just a shade above $1050.
This is more about King Dollar than the precious metals.
King Dollar will thrive in the near term as the best safe haven among paper currencies. As long as there is faith in any paper dollar, the US Dollar will be King Dollar. It really was a great system they set up for Americans coming out of Bretton Woods. I don't like being the generation that gets to unwind that as it had to end eventually, but it probably was the best way forward at that time.
Going forward I expect more deflation as demand destruction takes hold in the centrally planned global economy. Throw in the flight to safety that fuels King Dollar and a potential increase in interest rates and things look ugly for gold and silver, from the point of view of an American anyway. In other countries where their currency is depreciating relative to King Dollar, gold and silver will likely be looking pretty good. If you believe that the strength in King Dollar is fleeting, or just want to hedge against tail risk in the event of the death of King Dollar, gold and silver make a lot of sense.
After the deflation is wide spread, then we get to paper over the problems and that should cause inflation or perhaps hyperinflation / death of King Dollar. The Bernanke helicopter money drop if you will. That probably isn't enough to cause hyperinflation in my book. Even Yellen giving every American citizen $50,000 wouldn't cause hyperinflation. For that you will need a loss in the faith of the US Government to pay its obligations going forward. Considering that we print the dollars out of thin air, that means that people won't accept them anymore. This is more of a geopolitical risk. China or Russia doing something crazy. Maybe the death of the petrodollar with Saudi Arabia getting exposed by Russia in this whole mid east mess, who knows.
Do I think we will see the end of the dollar soon? No. It is possible and more possible than at any point since the short time after August 15, 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window temporarily forever.
I really think we will see some type of default on our debts to someone. Maybe we can stuff everyone's MyRA retirement account with items in the Social Security trust fund / lock box. Who knows. To me though, the dollar being devalued against something (gold, oil, productive nation's currencies, SDR's, bitcoin, etc) is what is going to happen. An economic collapse isn't a collapse of society or even the government, just dead beats beating debts.
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Silver defending $14 tonight, so far
Silver is defending the $14 price level so far tonight.
Been hovering right above $14, at $14.05 now.
In addition to all commodities getting smacked on price such as oil, silver is at risk of an interest rate increase. Yeah, this is the same thing as a strong dollar, but we have that already with basically a zero interest rate policy, so raising them should take the dollar into the stratosphere.
Now will one measly 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hike do anything really, not much. It will send the signal for things to come perhaps, or maybe even things that have now passed, who knows. If you see three or 4 of those so we get a 100 basis point (1%) rate hike, and I think the dollar will go nuts and gold and silver will push to lows we haven't seen in quite some time. Probably single digits in silver and certainly sub $1000 on gold. Heck, gold could get there any day. Gold may drop sub $750, maybe even sub $500.
Personally I don't think we will ever get out four 25 basis point increases before having to reverse course, but what do I know. I know I will be buying silver like a mad man in the single digits, though you could say that about someone that bought it at $25 now too.
Been hovering right above $14, at $14.05 now.
In addition to all commodities getting smacked on price such as oil, silver is at risk of an interest rate increase. Yeah, this is the same thing as a strong dollar, but we have that already with basically a zero interest rate policy, so raising them should take the dollar into the stratosphere.
Now will one measly 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hike do anything really, not much. It will send the signal for things to come perhaps, or maybe even things that have now passed, who knows. If you see three or 4 of those so we get a 100 basis point (1%) rate hike, and I think the dollar will go nuts and gold and silver will push to lows we haven't seen in quite some time. Probably single digits in silver and certainly sub $1000 on gold. Heck, gold could get there any day. Gold may drop sub $750, maybe even sub $500.
Personally I don't think we will ever get out four 25 basis point increases before having to reverse course, but what do I know. I know I will be buying silver like a mad man in the single digits, though you could say that about someone that bought it at $25 now too.
Sunday Night
Metals markets are opening back up.
Silver at an even $14.00. Seems like an important number.
Not many people have seen the opportunity to buy that low. Not in some time at least.
I honestly expect both gold and silver to continue to break down.
Right now the US Dollar is strong, which hurts metals.
Also gold is expensive at the moment compared to oil. I don't see oil catching up any soon so down further for the monetary metals it is.
At least my Buckeyes beat Michigan this weekend in football.
Silver at an even $14.00. Seems like an important number.
Not many people have seen the opportunity to buy that low. Not in some time at least.
I honestly expect both gold and silver to continue to break down.
Right now the US Dollar is strong, which hurts metals.
Also gold is expensive at the moment compared to oil. I don't see oil catching up any soon so down further for the monetary metals it is.
At least my Buckeyes beat Michigan this weekend in football.
Friday, November 27, 2015
Friday Comedy
I have really enjoyed this video and wanted to share.
I am in tears watching. Best part for me is that I can't tell if it is a real translation or if it is a fake. Just like I can't tell if the tears are from laughter or sadness. That is how you know it is a great video. The Egyptian news reaction to President Obama is just the best.
Thanksgiving and King Dollar
Today, well yesterday about 15 minutes ago, was Thanksgiving here in America.
One of my two favorite holidays. Independence Day aka the 4th of July being my other favorite holidays.
Why?
Both are American holidays.
Neither require me to get a gift for people.
Both involve feasts of food.
Independence day is always great weather.
Thanksgiving is always right around rivalry week in college football.
Today I am thankful for King Dollar.
While King Dollar is going to die eventually, he is as strong as ever lately and looking to get stronger.
As a result, I haven't been buying many coins or gold or silver here in the US. My dollar buys more now in Europe and that is where I have been spending my coin money. I need to look into Canadian coins too. The Canadian Dollar has been crushed lately too.
While the US Dollar price of gold and silver look poor, they have held up well in regards to other currencies and oil. It really isn't precious metals being down as much as it is the dollar is up. Of course the opposite will be true when the metals do rise eventually, it will be more the dollar tanking likely than the metals rising.
Either way, my ounces still all weigh the same. That is the point of wealth, it just sits there. Wealth is nothing more than deferred consumption, probably why it is so rare anymore. If I wanted it to multiply, I would put the money to work in productive assets like small businesses or rentals or Wall Street.
The secret isn't in making as much as possible, though it certainly helps. The secret is in needing as little as possible from the world to thrive and be happy. Minimalism is the trend going forward for most of my fellow Americans whether we like it or not. Embrace it now while it is still your choice.
One of my two favorite holidays. Independence Day aka the 4th of July being my other favorite holidays.
Why?
Both are American holidays.
Neither require me to get a gift for people.
Both involve feasts of food.
Independence day is always great weather.
Thanksgiving is always right around rivalry week in college football.
Today I am thankful for King Dollar.
While King Dollar is going to die eventually, he is as strong as ever lately and looking to get stronger.
As a result, I haven't been buying many coins or gold or silver here in the US. My dollar buys more now in Europe and that is where I have been spending my coin money. I need to look into Canadian coins too. The Canadian Dollar has been crushed lately too.
While the US Dollar price of gold and silver look poor, they have held up well in regards to other currencies and oil. It really isn't precious metals being down as much as it is the dollar is up. Of course the opposite will be true when the metals do rise eventually, it will be more the dollar tanking likely than the metals rising.
Either way, my ounces still all weigh the same. That is the point of wealth, it just sits there. Wealth is nothing more than deferred consumption, probably why it is so rare anymore. If I wanted it to multiply, I would put the money to work in productive assets like small businesses or rentals or Wall Street.
The secret isn't in making as much as possible, though it certainly helps. The secret is in needing as little as possible from the world to thrive and be happy. Minimalism is the trend going forward for most of my fellow Americans whether we like it or not. Embrace it now while it is still your choice.
Saturday, February 21, 2015
$1200 stop hunts on gold twice with no momentum
Gold was pushed under $1200 US twice to end the week, neither time stuck.
With two efforts at igniting momentum at $1200 and options expiration, $1200 looks like a nice entry point for gold. If you see $1180 - $1170 maybe time to reconsider if you are a short term paper player.
Here is a spreadsheet on Google Docs that has the price of gold and silver and the gold silver ratio. It also has some quick calculations for 90% gold and silver and 40% silver. Might help some people next time they are at their Local Coin Shop (LCS).
With two efforts at igniting momentum at $1200 and options expiration, $1200 looks like a nice entry point for gold. If you see $1180 - $1170 maybe time to reconsider if you are a short term paper player.
Here is a spreadsheet on Google Docs that has the price of gold and silver and the gold silver ratio. It also has some quick calculations for 90% gold and silver and 40% silver. Might help some people next time they are at their Local Coin Shop (LCS).
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Gold gives up $1200
So gold is around 1199 and change today. 1200 is a nice round number.
The 1180's were the lows for quite some time now.
If we see 1170's, I would anticipate giving up 1100 shortly thereafter (like within a month or two).
Me, I am not buying any gold right now unless it were something special. I like graded and certified gold in low MS state for just above melt. I do cap those purchases at melt plus 25% though so I don't stray too hard into a less than liquid coin.
GSR (Gold to Silver Ratio) is sitting at 73.7 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold.
You basically never see the 80's in this ratio and when you do it is a great time to swap out gold for silver. Me, I won't be doing that at all. I would swap into gold and just hold gold. Gold is wealth. Silver is currency. At least they used to be before money literally started growing on trees.
To me you don't swap when the GSR gets high, you just stop buying gold and double down on silver. When the ratio gets low again, at least in the 50's or better the 40's, then swap that silver out for gold.
The 1180's were the lows for quite some time now.
If we see 1170's, I would anticipate giving up 1100 shortly thereafter (like within a month or two).
Me, I am not buying any gold right now unless it were something special. I like graded and certified gold in low MS state for just above melt. I do cap those purchases at melt plus 25% though so I don't stray too hard into a less than liquid coin.
GSR (Gold to Silver Ratio) is sitting at 73.7 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold.
You basically never see the 80's in this ratio and when you do it is a great time to swap out gold for silver. Me, I won't be doing that at all. I would swap into gold and just hold gold. Gold is wealth. Silver is currency. At least they used to be before money literally started growing on trees.
To me you don't swap when the GSR gets high, you just stop buying gold and double down on silver. When the ratio gets low again, at least in the 50's or better the 40's, then swap that silver out for gold.
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Silver Monkey Hammered
Silver with a major move down. Cruising through $17 we are down a full dollar into the $16.30's.
Looks like energy deflation is spreading into other commodities, even the monetary ones.
I gotta think this oil head fake is about out of time and we will see the 40's if not 30's and 20's on oil. If you saw similar crashes in the metals, yikes for the stackers. Really wanting to see the oil / energy stocks get whacked on price. If energy stays down, the stocks need to lose 30 - 60% of their share price and that is when I would look to buy in.
As for gold and silver,I am not a market timer and like to buy small amounts often. When it is down, I just get more coins for the budget. When it is up, I get less coins for my dollar. When it is way up, I enjoy the classic US copper coins the most. Love them large cents and two cent pieces.
I vary it up with gold and silver too. Generally using the Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR). Lately the GSR has been high so I have been buying more silver relatively. I would never swap gold for silver so there is no price I am coming off my gold in exchange for silver, other asset classes perhaps, but not the same asset class. If the GSR were to get low, say 40 - 50, maybe even 55, I would trade much of my silver for gold.
I also mix it up in quality. When prices are low, I tend to buy junk silver or gold coins closer to melt. When the cost is up, I tend to look more at the higher end coins. Anything can catch my eye while coin shopping, but I try and get the most bang for my buck.
Looks like energy deflation is spreading into other commodities, even the monetary ones.
I gotta think this oil head fake is about out of time and we will see the 40's if not 30's and 20's on oil. If you saw similar crashes in the metals, yikes for the stackers. Really wanting to see the oil / energy stocks get whacked on price. If energy stays down, the stocks need to lose 30 - 60% of their share price and that is when I would look to buy in.
As for gold and silver,I am not a market timer and like to buy small amounts often. When it is down, I just get more coins for the budget. When it is up, I get less coins for my dollar. When it is way up, I enjoy the classic US copper coins the most. Love them large cents and two cent pieces.
I vary it up with gold and silver too. Generally using the Gold to Silver Ratio (GSR). Lately the GSR has been high so I have been buying more silver relatively. I would never swap gold for silver so there is no price I am coming off my gold in exchange for silver, other asset classes perhaps, but not the same asset class. If the GSR were to get low, say 40 - 50, maybe even 55, I would trade much of my silver for gold.
I also mix it up in quality. When prices are low, I tend to buy junk silver or gold coins closer to melt. When the cost is up, I tend to look more at the higher end coins. Anything can catch my eye while coin shopping, but I try and get the most bang for my buck.
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Classic US Gold Coin Grading Images
Just wanted to feature two great resources for collectors.
This first one is for grading coins. PCGS Photograde.
Images of every US coin in every grade possible. Great detail. A go to resource for quick coin grading comparisons.
The next one is for gold in particular. Doug Winter has a collection of images of graded gold coins that he has bought and sold over the years along with the grades. Great way to get a feel for grading gold coins.
Here is Douglas Winters' Rare Gold Coins. Must see for collectors of classic US gold coins.
This first one is for grading coins. PCGS Photograde.
Images of every US coin in every grade possible. Great detail. A go to resource for quick coin grading comparisons.
The next one is for gold in particular. Doug Winter has a collection of images of graded gold coins that he has bought and sold over the years along with the grades. Great way to get a feel for grading gold coins.
Here is Douglas Winters' Rare Gold Coins. Must see for collectors of classic US gold coins.
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
More positive action for Gold and Silver
Gold and silver have been strong of late.
Been pushing up and up. Probably time to start building a base again and move sideways if this is healthy price action.
Interesting fact, for all of 2014, gold was the second best performing currency in the world only behind the US dollar. Sure gold was down in dollar terms but it did fare better than every other currency in the world. Hopefully that trend continues and leads to more cheap gold for Americans like myself.
Been pushing up and up. Probably time to start building a base again and move sideways if this is healthy price action.
Interesting fact, for all of 2014, gold was the second best performing currency in the world only behind the US dollar. Sure gold was down in dollar terms but it did fare better than every other currency in the world. Hopefully that trend continues and leads to more cheap gold for Americans like myself.
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